Evaluating the Feedback of the Reservoir Methane Cycle to Climate Warming under Hydrological Uncertainty

Freshwater reservoirs are widely recognized as methane (CH4) emission hotspots. Existing research has shown that temperature and hydrological conditions significantly affect wetland CH4 cycling processes. However, the feedback of cycle to climate warming remains unclear for deep where seasonal water thermal stratification exists. This study combined a reservoir model Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) evaluate feedbacks under multiple change scenarios while accounting uncertainty. Daily air temperatures in 2100 were predicted by combination CanESM5 SDSM. To address uncertainty, we selected three representative years (i.e., wet, normal, dry) create scenarios. Results showed annual sediment production increased with warming, ranging 323.1–413.7 × 103 t C year−1 among Meanwhile, oxidation percentage decreased which meant promoted release non-linearly; 67.8–84.6% ebullient flux was ultimately emitted atmosphere (51.3–137.7 year−1), ebullition dominant pathway. Higher drier generally promote emissions. is helpful predicting emissions directing decision-making sustainability.